Systems Dynamics Lab · v3 · Research-Calibrated

Software Labor Market ModelEmpirically Grounded · 14 Sources · 10 Calibrated Parameters

AI CodeGen Speed [PENG2023]0.42
AI Architecture Speed [OXSEC2025]0.22
AI Testing Speed [SONAR2025]0.35
AI Management Speed0.15
Jr Displacement Threshold [STANFORD2025]0.55
Mid Displacement Threshold0.65
Org Perception Delay (yr) [ACCENTURE2024]2.0
Human Adaptation Rate [INDEXDEV2026]0.45
New Juniors / yr [INDEED2025]14.0
Fragility Delay (yr) [GITCLEAR2025]2.5
Max Jr Displacement [STANFORD2025]0.18
Labor Mkt Delay (yr) [INDEED2025]1.5
Developer Headcount — [STANFORD2025] [INDEED2025]
0336598130202420282032203620402044
Juniors
Mids
Seniors
Hybrid Roles
Exited Tech
Juniors 2044
64
Seniors
54
AI CodeGen
97%
Tech Debt
5%
Incidents
2%
Sr Wage
$280k
Hybrid
11
Left Tech
110
Quality-Adj
239%
Burnout
36%
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Made by a programmer who's probably on the 'declining juniors' curve
status: still_employed
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If this model saved you from googling 14 papers... you know what to do 👀
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💡 If this model saved you hours of research, consider buying me a coffee. Keeps the burnout under control.
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Just saw a systems dynamics model about the future of programmers with AI. Has 14 empirical papers. Spoiler: juniors have it rough but technical debt is the plot twist. 🧵(click to copy)
Made with mass-resignation-anxiety.js v3.0 · License: "hopefully employed tomorrow"
⭐ Star this to reduce my burnout by 0.02·🐛 bugs → issues (the model ones, not the existential ones)
Exploratory model · Not a forecast · All thresholds non-linear · All delays explicit
14 empirical sources · 10 calibrated parameters · Full source chain documented
Questions? Want to insult me? Congratulate me? Tell me AI will replace me? → alejandrolmosquera@gmail.com